Using variograms to detect and attribute hydrological change

There have been many published studies aiming to identify temporal changes in river flow time series, most of which use monotonic trend tests such as the Mann–Kendall test. Although robust to both the distribution of the data and incomplete records, these tests have important limitations and provide no information as to whether a change in variability mirrors a change in magnitude. This study develops a new method for detecting periods of change in a river flow time series, using temporally shifting variograms (TSVs) based on applying variograms to moving windows in a time series and comparing these to the long-term average variogram, which characterises the temporal dependence structure in the river flow time series. Variogram properties in each moving window can also be related to potential meteorological drivers. The method is applied to 91 UK catchments which were chosen to have minimal anthropogenic influences and good quality data between 1980 and 2012 inclusive. Each of the four variogram parameters (range, sill and two measures of semi-variance) characterise different aspects of the river flow regime, and have a different relationship with the precipitation characteristics. Three variogram parameters (the sill and the two measures of semi-variance) are related to variability (either day-to-day or over the time series) and have the largest correlations with indicators describing the magnitude and variability of precipitation. The fourth (the range) is dependent on the relationship between the river flow on successive days and is most correlated with the length of wet and dry periods. Two prominent periods of change were identified: 1995–2001 and 2004–2012. The first period of change is attributed to an increase in the magnitude of rainfall whilst the second period is attributed to an increase in variability of the rainfall. The study demonstrates that variograms have considerable potential for application in the detection and attribution of temporal variability and change in hydrological systems

Future hydrological extremes: the uncertainty from multiple global climate and global hydrological models

Projections of changes in the hydrological cycle from global hydrological models (GHMs) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are critical for understanding future occurrence of hydrological extremes. However, uncertainties remain large and need to be better assessed. In particular, recent studies have pointed to a considerable contribution of GHMs that can equal or outweigh the contribution of GCMs to uncertainty in hydrological projections. Using six GHMs and five GCMs from the ISI-MIP multi-model ensemble, this study aims: (i) to assess future changes in the frequency of both high and low flows at the global scale using control and future (RCP8.5) simulations by the 2080s, and (ii) to quantify, for both ends of the runoff spectrum, GCMs and GHMs contributions to uncertainty using a two-way ANOVA. Increases are found in high flows for northern latitudes and in low flows for several hotspots. Globally, the largest source of uncertainty is associated with GCMs, but GHMs are the greatest source in snow-dominated regions. More specifically, results vary depending on the runoff metric, the temporal (annual and seasonal) and regional scale of analysis. For instance, uncertainty contribution from GHMs is higher for low flows than it is for high flows, partly owing to the different processes driving the onset of the two phenomena (e.g. the more direct effect of the GCMs' precipitation variability on high flows). This study provides a comprehensive synthesis of where future hydrological extremes are projected to increase and where the ensemble spread is owed to either GCMs or GHMs. Finally, our results underline the need for improvements in modelling snowmelt and runoff processes to project future hydrological extremes and the importance of using multiple GCMs and GHMs to encompass the uncertainty range provided by these two sources

Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)

The effects of climate change and variability on river flows have been widely studied. However the impacts of such changes on sediment transport have received comparatively little attention. In part this is because modelling sediment production and transport processes introduces additional uncertainty, but it also results from the fact that, alongside the climate change signal, there have been and are projected to be significant changes in land cover which strongly affect sediment-related processes. Here we assess the impact of a range of climatic variations and land covers on the River Thames catchment (UK). We first calculate a response of the system to climatic stressors (average precipitation, average temperature and increase in extreme precipitation) and land-cover stressors (change in the extent of arable land). To do this we use an ensemble of INCA hydrological and sediment behavioural models. The resulting system response, which reveals the nature of interactions between the driving factors, is then compared with climate projections originating from the UKCP09 assessment (UK Climate Projections 2009) to evaluate the likelihood of the range of projected outcomes. The results show that climate and land cover each exert an individual control on sediment transport. Their effects vary depending on the land use and on the level of projected climate change. The suspended sediment yield of the River Thames in its lowermost reach is expected to change by −4% (−16% to +13%, confidence interval, p = 0.95) under the A1FI emission scenario for the 2030s, although these figures could be substantially altered by an increase in extreme precipitation, which could raise the suspended sediment yield up to an additional +10%. A 70% increase in the extension of the arable land is projected to increase sediment yield by around 12% in the lowland reaches. A 50% reduction is projected to decrease sediment yield by around 13%

Modelling Malaria Control

White discusses a new study that models the impact of deploying intermittent presumptive treatment of malaria upon the spread of drug resistance

A systematic assessment of drought termination in the United Kingdom

Drought termination can be associated with dramatic transitions from drought to flooding. Greater attention may be given to these newsworthy and memorable events, but drought terminations that proceed gradually also pose challenges for water resource managers. This paper defines drought termination as a distinctive phase of the event. Using observed river flow records for 52 UK catchments, a more systematic and objective approach for detecting drought terminations is demonstrated. The parameters of the approach are informed by a sensitivity analysis that ensures a focus on terminations of multi-season to multi-year droughts. The resulting inventory of 467 drought terminations provides an unprecedented historical perspective on this phenomenon in the UK. Nationally and regionally coherent drought termination events are identifiable, although their characteristics vary both between and within major episodes. Contrasting drought termination events in 1995–1998 and 2009–2012 are examined in greater depth. The data are also used to assess potential linkages between metrics of drought termination and catchment properties. The duration of drought termination is moderately negatively correlated with elevation (rs =  −0.47) and catchment average rainfall (rs =  −0.42), suggesting that wetter catchments in upland areas of the UK tend to experience shorter drought terminations. More urbanized catchments tend to have gradual drought terminations (contrary to expectations of flashy hydrological response in such areas), although this may also reflect the type of catchments typical of lowland England. Significant correlations are found between the duration of the drought development phase and both the duration (rs =  −0.29) and rate (rs =  0.28) of drought termination. This suggests that prolonged drought development phases tend to be followed by shorter and more abrupt drought terminations. The inventory helps to place individual events within a long-term context. The drought termination phase in 2009–2012 was, at the time, regarded as exceptional in terms of magnitude and spatial footprint, but the Thames river flow record identifies several comparable events before 1930. The chronology could, in due course, provide a basis for exploring the complex drivers, long-term variability, and impacts of drought termination events

Drought termination: concept and characterisation

There are numerous anecdotal examples of drought terminations documented throughout the historical record on most continents. The end of a drought is the critical time during which water resource managers urgently require information on the replenishment of supplies. Yet this phase has been relatively neglected by the academic community, with much of the existing body of research on drought termination assessing the likelihood of droughts ending rather than its temporal profile. In particular, there has been little effort to characterise drought termination events themselves. This is partly explained by existing definitions of drought termination as a specific point in time when drought is considered to have finished, rather than a more holistic consideration based on approaches developed within biological sciences. There is also a lack of understanding about how drought termination propagates through the hydrological cycle. This paper specifically examines and reviews available research on drought termination, highlighting limitations associated with current definitions and offering suggestions for characterising the temporal stages of drought. An alternative definition of drought termination is proposed: a period between the maximum negative anomaly and a return to above-average conditions. Once this phase has been delineated, the duration, rate and seasonality of drought termination can be derived. The utility of these metrics is illustrated through a case study of the 2010–2012 drought in the UK, and the propagation of drought termination between river flows and groundwater levels

Sur un cas de Myxosporidiose du Saumon

Prudhomme M., Pantaléon Jean. Sur un cas de myxosporidiose du saumon. In: Bulletin de l'Académie Vétérinaire de France tome 112 n°2, 1959. pp. 137-140

Evaluating the performance of hydrological models via cross-spectral analysis: case study of the Thames Basin, United Kingdom

Nine distributed hydrological models, forced with common meteorological inputs, simulated naturalised daily discharge from the Thames Basin for 1963-2001. While model-dependent evaporative losses are critical for modelling mean discharge, multiple physical processes at many time scales influence the variability and timing of discharge. Here we advocate the use of cross-spectral analysis to measure how the average amplitude, and independently the average phase, of modelled discharge differ from observed discharge at daily to decadal time scales. Simulation of the spectral properties of the model discharge via numerical manipulation of precipitation confirms that modelled transformation involves runoff generation and routing that amplify the annual cycle, while subsurface storage and routing of runoff between grid boxes introduces most autocorrelation and delays. Too much or too little modelled evaporation affects discharge variability as do the capacity and time constants of modelled stores. Additionally the performance of specific models would improve if four issues were tackled: a) non-sinusoidal annual variations in model discharge (prolonged low baseflow and shortened high baseflow, 3 models), b) excessive attenuation of high frequency variability (3 models), c) excessive short-term variability in winter half years but too little variability in summer half years (2 models) and d) introduction of phase delays at the annual scale only during runoff generation (3 models) or only during routing (1 model). Cross-spectral analysis reveals how re-runs of one model using alternative methods of runoff generation - designed to improve performance at the weekly to monthly time scales - degraded performance at the annual scale. The cross-spectral approach facilitates hydrological model diagnoses and development

Pollution control can help mitigate future climate change impact on European grayling in the UK

Aim: We compare the performance of habitat suitability models using climate data only or climate data together with water chemistry, land cover and predation pressure data to model the distribution of European grayling (Thymallus thymallus). From these models, we (a) investigate the relationship between habitat suitability and genetic diversity; (b) project the distribution of grayling under future climate change; and (c) model the effects of habitat mitigation on future distributions. Location: United Kingdom. Methods: Maxent species distribution modelling was implemented using a Simple model (only climate parameters) or a Full model (climate, water chemistry, land use and predation pressure parameters). Areas of high and low habitat suitability were designated. Associations between habitat suitability and genetic diversity for both neutral and adaptive markers were examined. Distribution under minimal and maximal future climate change scenarios was modelled for 2050, incorporating projections of future flow scenarios obtained from the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. To examine potential mitigation effects within habitats, models were run with manipulation of orthophosphate, nitrite and copper concentrations. Results: We mapped suitable habitat for grayling in the present and the future. The Full model achieved substantially higher discriminative power than the Simple model. For low suitability habitat, higher levels of inbreeding were observed for adaptive, but not neutral, loci. Future projections predict a significant contraction of highly suitable areas. Under habitat mitigation, modelling suggests that recovery of suitable habitat of up to 10% is possible. Main conclusions: Extending the climate-only model improves estimates of habitat suitability. Significantly higher inbreeding coefficients were found at immune genes, but not neutral markers in low suitability habitat, indicating a possible impact of environmental stress on evolutionary potential. The potential for habitat mitigation to alleviate distributional changes under future climate change is demonstrated, and specific recommendations are made for habitat recovery on a regional basis

Por que teoria é importante: Uma investigação das reformas contemporâneas do tempo de aprendizagem

This article explores the contemporary policy reform push to extend and expand learning time in schools. In light of the potential and continued prominence of learning time reforms in today’s national educational landscape, this article makes visible the ways in which theory matters for the near- and long-term success of equity-focused educational reforms. Using the recent enactment of learning time reforms in Colorado as an illustration, and the zone of mediation framework as a conceptual lens, this article demonstrates how such reforms are likely to be weakened and undermined without strong theoretical grounding.Este artículo examina políticas contemporáneas que enfatizan un cambio para extender y/o dispersar el tiempo de aprendizaje en las escuelas. Dado el potencial y relevancia actual de las reformas hacia el tiempo de aprendizaje en el campo general de educación, el propósito de este articulo es brevemente enaltecer las maneras en las cuales la teoría educativa son de suma importancia, a largo y corto plazo, para asegurar el éxito de dichas reformas educativas orientadas hacia la equidad. Utilizando el ejemplo de la implementación de estas reformas en Colorado, y el instrumento teorético de la zona me mediación, este artículo demuestra como reformas similares pueden ser disminuidos por una falta de un base de teoría fuerte.Este artigo examina o promover da reforma contemporânea das regras para ampliar e expandir o tempo de aprendizagem nas escolas. Considerando o potencial e o contínuo destaque da reforma do tempo de aprendizagem no ambiente da educação nacional atualmente, este artigo ilustra as maneiras em que teoria é importante para o sucesso imediato e futuro das reformas educacionais que se focalizam em equidade. Usando a recente promulgação das reformas do tempo de aprendizagem em Colorado como ilustração, e o sistema de zona de mediação como uma lente conceitual, o artigo demonstra como tais reformas serão provavelmente enfraquecidas sem uma forte base teórica